Tom Leung, who writes the Raising Humanity newsletter, just did the thing almost no family does. He ran the real financial math on a $400,000 Cornell degree for his older son and published the result.
His conclusion is uncomfortable and correct. The elite-degree path earns the most lifetime income of any option he modeled, and it still finishes last in wealth, by a wide margin. The reason is the $400,000 you spend at 18 instead of invest. Over four decades, that capital dwarfs the salary premium the degree buys. In his words, compound interest does not care about your fancy diploma.
The research backs him, and it goes one step further. When economists compared students who were admitted to the same selective schools, attending the more elite one barely changed their earnings. The student drives the earnings, and the school barely moves them. The exception is low-income and first-generation students, for whom elite access genuinely pays off. Which means the full-pay families who can most afford the elite price are the ones for whom it is least justified.
He already sensed this when he weighed UC Davis against Cornell. My upcoming book makes the rule explicit: the major clears the bar before the school does. His older son chose Cornell for plant science and environmental engineering, a high-return field, and the cheaper school he weighed, UC Davis, ranks second in the world for agriculture.
The cheaper public degree returns far more than the elite private one
Same family, two colleges. UC Davis costs less than half as much per year and earns back the high school baseline by age 36. Cornell costs enough that, once you count the price, it never catches up, even though its graduates still out-earn a high school diploma.
| University of California, DavisDavis, CA | Cornell CollegeMount Vernon, IA | |
|---|---|---|
| Admissions | ||
| Admission rate | 41.8% | 79.9% |
| SAT range (25 to 75) | Not reported | 575 to 655 reading, 545 to 630 math |
| ACT composite | Not reported | 23 to 30 |
| Graduation rate | 88.9% | 64.3% |
| Average starting age | 21 | 20 |
| Full-time enrollment | 97.5% | 99.3% |
| Undergraduates | 32,253 | 1,086 |
| Cost and aid | ||
| Sticker price (per year) | $41,238 | $66,249 |
| Average net price (per year) | $14,741 | $23,634 |
| Pell grant share | 31.1% | 30.8% |
| Earnings and return | ||
| Median earningscompleters, 4 years out | $73,086 | $48,353 |
| Median earningsall who enrolled, 10 years out | $80,838 | $53,460 |
| Share earning above a high school grad | 80.0% | 68.4% |
| Lifetime value (median cost) | +$584k | +$355k |
| Return vs. high school (median cost) | 189% | -152% |
| Break-even age | 36 | Never |
| Public return | ||
| Social impact ROI | 99% | -125% |
| Government Pell grant ROI | -30% | -97% |
Source: College ROI model at collegeroi.org, using U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard cost and earnings data. Lifetime value, return, and break-even age use the four-year earnings figure, compare against a high school baseline, and are net of federal taxes.
His younger son’s filmmaking is a different and far riskier bet, because in the arts the price buys almost nothing measurable. Same family, opposite major.
In film and photographic arts, a higher price buys no more earnings
Each dot is one bachelor’s program. Earnings four years out barely move as the annual price climbs from $13,000 to $90,000. The field median sits about $7,000 above the high school baseline, and the bottom quarter of programs leave graduates earning no more than a high school diploma.
Source: College ROI model at collegeroi.org, U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard. 176 of 332 bachelor’s programs in Film/Video and Photographic Arts (CIP 50.06) have both cost and four-year earnings data. Shaded band shows the 25th to 75th percentile of earnings.
He is asking exactly the right question. The honest answer is that an elite degree is a luxury purchase, fine for a family that can afford it and a mistake for one that borrows to buy it. Run your own numbers at collegeroi.org.