“We must ensure our system of higher education offers world-class quality for a world-class economy.”
Bob Taft
Nothing in my resume suggests I have academic or relevant experience in Higher Education. Even if I did, not that it would meet the insider measure, what insiders would consider adequate.
My educational background does not match that of the well-renowned and often-quoted Professor David Deming or that of the many researchers who have published on this matter.
Yet there are times and topics where an outsider can add significant value to the discussion.
Sometimes outsiders can see things insiders cannot
Nothing in my background suggested I should recommend anything to a consumer goods company. Still, when I was 26 years old, I did just that. With my McKinsey teammates, I stood before the CEO of a very successful company. We explained how they could dramatically improve their marketing and manufacturing results. They changed, and it did.
For almost 40 years, I have helped transform companies.
In every case, we worked with savvy executives. They all looked at flawed information that required reframing. They looked at data and selectively focused on the pleasing parts. They ignored risks or negatives. Or they needed new interpretations to better understand the implications of information for their future.
My Learning Ground
I am an apprentice of thinking outside the box! I have seen so many insiders miss essential clues that I wanted to help by bringing a fresh outsider perspective to problem-solving.
My training started with McKinsey and Company, the premier Global Consulting Firm.
My first Manager, Shyam Lal, is brilliant. Throughout his career, he has delivered incredible insights to his clients. The partner on our assignment, Shyam Giridharadas, was equally astute and successful. These two set me on a path to explore unbounded and first-principles thinking for real-world transformation.
I was fortunate to meet the amazing Elizabeth Haas Edersheim at McKinsey. We left McKinsey and built New York Consulting Partners focused on practical business transformation. I vicariously learned from Marvin Bower (the soul of McKinsey), and Peter Drucker (the Business Thinker) as Liz spent time with them writing their biographies. She exudes brilliance.
After I left NYCP, I worked with a leadership benchmark: former McKinsey Director Stephen P. Kaufman. Steve transformed the electronics industry and led Arrow Electronics (NYSE: ARW) to new heights as a global leader. Steve is a leadership savant and an outlier in many management disciplines.
So, I have apprenticed with some brilliant people.
Through the years we have worked together, we have made some incredible transformations.
It all started with asking tough questions.
They all required looking at and understanding information differently than the typical observer.
How I got to Higher Education
It started in 2012, when our oldest daughter was considering college.
I was intrigued by a report that Peter Thiel had created a fellowship offering $100k for selected students. He offered recipients the opportunity to start a business rather than attend college.
For the first time, I wondered if there was a fact-based critical analysis of college degrees.
I found the “college wage premium” research. Everywhere.
But it felt like making investment choices by looking at the revenue alternatives. Yes, a College Degree makes 86% more, and yes, the college student earns $1.2M more. But no serious investor would ever stop there.
Intrigued, I built my first spreadsheet model projecting the income for each alternative.
Taxes mattered, so I added them and then calculated the Net Present Value of the lifetime income after taxes and costs.
The results surprised me. My first summary of my findings is in this post, published in 2013: Is a College degree really worth it?
I downloaded the Department of Education College Database.
Then, I built an online tool replicating the spreadsheet analysis. That site and tool, though dated, are still available at College Compareer.
I stopped further development when President Obama announced plans for a new College Scorecard website. He advocated for more transparency and accountability regarding the value of higher education. This new approach gave me some confidence the college scorecard would meaningfully highlight the college value question, making the wide variation in value more transparent.
As a consultant and an executive, I continued working on corporate transformations. Occasionally, I updated my spreadsheet model but only spent a little time on this.
In 2023, the Department of Education raised this issue again, piquing my interest. Its statements sounded exactly like those originally made when the scorecard was introduced. I learned that lobbyists and other interested parties essentially sidelined the hard-hitting aspects of the data.
I felt compelled to redo my analysis with the latest available database.
Why I Wrote these articles
As I dug into the data, it became abundantly clear that we have an issue. We needed a deeper conversation about the value of college degrees. There were profound implications for students, their families, institutions, donors, and policymakers.
There are excellent fields of study and colleges to attend, and bad choices exist. The prevailing sentiment that suggests all or the vast majority is good is flawed. This assumption results in much lower due diligence on the right fit for many decision-makers.
College was transformational for me. I started late, awaiting my USA residency visa in South America after High School. I could not meet our family challenges without working. So, with the help of grants and scholarships, I worked full-time and attended Baruch College full-time at no cost. At Indiana University, I completed my MBA with a paid scholarship and a stipend for teaching. Both degrees were Summa Cum Laude.
Higher Education changed my life. But that was long ago, and many underlying factors have changed dramatically.
Nearly Twenty Million Americans are investing in higher education this year. Many are overinvesting, and many are also underinvesting. Some will realize their dreams; others will suffer a lifetime of financial challenges. More importantly, for some, they will doom their supportive families to a lifetime of financial challenges.
Too many American families do not adequately understand their choice of college investment. College can be a better investment!
Additional Acknowledgements
Our daughters Elise and Sara inspired this work as they set out on their college quests. The numerous debates we had benefited my thinking. We are blessed that they have made great choices.
My muse, best friend, and spouse, Leslie Jones Shivamber, has supported my obsession with investigating interesting topics. Such was the case with the exploration of College as an investment. She encouraged me and challenged me every step along this journey.
My great friends and colleagues Rick Krebs, Tom McKeefery, and Adam Schorr indulged me in reviewing the early material. They made many suggestions and helped me make this much better than it started. I am looking forward to their help in building a more practical guide for parents, students, counselors, and other stakeholders.
This work is better, thanks to my many supporters. There are too many to mention individually. Thank you all!
The mistakes and errors are entirely mine.