Statistics

The Math Was Right. The Coin Was Wrong

The math was right. The coin was wrong

A viral post did the math on MIT’s admissions by sex and got it right. The trouble is what the math assumed. Who applies tells you who was interested, not who was qualified. The fair test is how a class was chosen.

What “Only 5 Percent” Really Means

What only 5 percent really means

“Only 5 percent” sounds like a small slice of a paycheck. Proposition 40 would take 5 percent of a fortune. Here is that bill in the units most of us use, what it would be paid with, and what it can and can’t fix.

What a Fair Race Looks Like

What a fair race looks like

At the first USAFacts debate, the moderator said kids born rich mostly stay there. The slide’s own numbers said the opposite. Six in ten children born into the top fifth fall out of it, and the pattern is close to what a fair race produces when runners start at different places on the track.

California’s Tax Paradox

California's Tax Paradox

California’s taxes look nearly flat. Look inside the total and you find a steeply progressive income tax offset by a sales tax and a rent estimate that fall hardest on the poor. That changes one argument around the 2026 billionaire tax.

The Number That Proved They Were Fine

the number that proved they were fine

Michigan is one of the best universities in the country, and it answered a student distress problem by deciding to cover first-semester grades. The number I think its administrators were looking at is true, excellent, and aggregated at exactly the level where the actual problem disappears. This is how capable people miss a root cause, and it is the same error the college-ROI research made for twenty years.

The Measure They Kept

The measure they kept

Michigan’s College of LSA will stop putting first-semester letter grades on transcripts, to help students explore and to curb a mental health crisis. The pressure is real. The evidence on hiding grades mostly runs the other way, and the university kept the measure for itself.