The Wall Street Journal spent fourteen years testing stock pickers against darts, and more than two decades of fund scoreboards show nearly nine in ten large-cap funds trailing the plain index over fifteen years. The same belief is reassembling around AI: predictive language models read as insight engines, and for most uses there is no scoreboard. Same error, new tape. Here is the test that would settle it, and the reason its result will not.
College is a bet, and in my experience few families are shown the odds. Count the students who have not finished and the graduates working below their degree, and the average student’s odds come to roughly two in five.
We all live in boxes, and the instructions for getting out are printed on the outside. Why seeing the roles and labels that limit you is the first step out.
Every day, millions face important choices. They see what appear to be equal options. They rely on intuition. Here’s why we keep picking the wrong door.
I use four questions to decide what deserves my time. Here’s what they did for me and why you need a system too.
Scammers bought us flowers to build trust. Building trust is the best method to perpetrate a scam. Unfortunately, it is really easy to simulate building trust. This is an existential problem of our society. It affects how we respond to politics, investment opportunities, and our relationships with friends and family.