Bryan Walsh’s Vox piece says college is still worth it, and he is right that the panic is overblown. But his “yes” leans hardest on one number, the Fed’s 12.5 percent, which is the return for the students who finish. Count everyone who starts and most do worse than that number. Then look school by school and major by major, and the answer is not yes or no. It is that “is college worth it” is the wrong question.
Forbes reported LinkedIn’s ranking of the “most versatile” college majors. But LinkedIn defines versatility as the share working outside their major’s top two industries, counted only among graduates employed full time who keep a profile. For the majors at the top of the list, it is praising underemployment and calling it a skill.
I audited the numbers that say college pays. The million dollars is not a return at all, and even the careful 12.5 percent skips taxes and hides a wide spread.
Palantir didn’t drop its standards when it dropped the degree. It started judging what people can actually do. Families weighing college should make the same move.
College is a bet, and in my experience few families are shown the odds. Count the students who have not finished and the graduates working below their degree, and the average student’s odds come to roughly two in five.
A high-earning parent ran the real numbers on a $400,000 Cornell degree and published the uncomfortable result. The math is not what families are told.